The gas pipeline to China. The project and the scheme of the gas pipeline to China

Russia and China signed a grandiose contract for the supply of natural gas. The gas pipeline to China is expected to allow Gazprom to diversify its exports, as well as contribute to further success in cooperation between the two countries.

Contract signed

At the end of May 2014, an agreement was concluded between Russia and the People's Republic of China (represented by Gazprom and CNPC) on the supply of natural gas from our country. The document was signed when the President of the Russian Federation was on an official visit to China. The volume of the contract is $ 400 billion, its validity is 30 years. Annually, the volume of supplies will be 38 billion cubic meters of gas.

This agreement is unique for Gazprom. The Russian company has not concluded any more with such agreements. Some experts believe that China received gas at a lower price (about $ 350 per thousand cubic meters), which suited Russia (we initially asked 400). Together with the agreement between the two countries, a memorandum on the priority of mutual understanding in the course of gas supplies was signed. A new gas pipeline from Russia to China will be built to fulfill the contract.

Uneasy way to signing

Just a few days before the signing of the gas contract between Russia and China in various media, it was reported that the negotiations had reached a deadlock, and no agreement could be concluded.

These theses, as some experts believe, had some fairness - if only because a few years earlier, attempts to conclude such a treaty between the Russian Federation and the PRC were continually unsuccessful. Take, for example, the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in 2011: representatives of China's gas companies were on it, but did not reach an agreement with their Russian counterparts. The reason was the disagreement over the price. Some experts believed that Russia offered gas twice as much as China could receive from other countries, in particular from Central Asia. Therefore, the question of whether or not a gas pipeline from Russia to China will appear has long been relevant.

Gas contract: how will it affect the relations between Russia and China?

The foundations of strategic partnership between the Russian Federation and the PRC were laid back in the 90's. In 2001, the states signed an agreement on which good-neighborly and friendly relations were to be built. In 2011, attempts were made to transfer cooperation to the strategic plane, and this, some experts believe, preceded the current successes in the gas contract.

There is a version that the signing of the recent agreement is promising not only in terms of financial benefits for Gazprom, but also in terms of acquiring resources for the development of other sectors of the economies of both countries. It is planned to conduct several rounds of investments in infrastructure (for example, the construction of a bridge across the Amur River), finance projects related to tourism and social support for the elderly. Russian-Chinese cooperation can deepen in the regions, especially those where key elements of the gas main will be laid.

Optimistic point of view

Some experts believe that the fact of signing a contract between China and Russia on gas supplies and the agreement that the construction of a gas pipeline to China will soon begin is an event of the greatest importance for the whole planet. It, analysts believe, will link the economies of both countries and will bring everyone a multitude of benefits. There is a version that both sides consciously made concessions only for the agreement to be reached.

If it were not, the contract would most likely not have been signed. Therefore, analysts believe, it is very important that Russia and China were initially tuned to the result. On the site of a major Chinese newspaper was a survey among users. The question was: "What is more important for you - the very fact of signing an agreement between the Russian Federation and the PRC or economic benefits?" Most users chose the first option. Therefore, we can say that the PRC government reflected the interests of citizens to some extent. Also, analysts believe, the gas contract will help both countries feel more confident in resolving the development issues of the Asia-Pacific region. When building a gas pipeline to China, Russia will thus be able to increase its own political weight as well.

Pessimistic point of view

There is a theory among experts that it was unprofitable for Russia to sign a gas contract with China. Our country, according to the supporters of this opinion, may have won something in terms of price, but lost in terms of gas supply terms . Here we are talking about the point of take or pay (which means "take or pay"), which Gazprom usually includes in its contracts. Experts believe that this item could not be present in the agreement signed between Russia and China.

This can lead to the fact that Russia, having built an expensive gas supply infrastructure, will face the reluctance to exploit it quite actively. The construction of a gas pipeline to China can thus prove to be unprofitable. As a result, the government will be forced to seek funds to compensate for possible costs.

How will the gas pipeline

It is assumed that the gas pipeline to China will be laid through the Altai region. If you look at the history of Russian-Chinese relations on the gas issue, it turns out that this model was considered back in the 90's. The gas pipeline project to China existed for a long time. The question was only in price, but now, when it is resolved, experts believe, it is likely that the parties to the contract will begin to implement the laying of pipes across the Altai. The main characteristics of the gas pipeline are as follows. The length of the highway will be 2.6 thousand km, capacity - about 30 billion cubic meters. This will allow delivering gas from the existing production sites in the Yamal region. In addition to the "Altai" gas pipeline, China and Russia plan to organize the delivery of fuel on another branch. It will consist of a section of Yakutia-Vladivostok and a branch in the direction of China near Blagoveshchensk. The development of the main field for this branch - Chayandinskoye - will be started, according to the plans of the two countries, in 2019. This scheme of the gas pipeline to China is seen by many experts as very thoughtful and effective.

How the contract will affect other markets

According to some economists, the agreement signed between Russia and China will not significantly affect the gas relationship between Gazprom and Europe. In many respects because the EU countries in the near future can implement the practice of energy conservation and start consuming less gas. The contract between Russia and the People's Republic of China, experts say, did not become a special sensation, since such a turn of events, in principle, is quite logical against the background of plans announced in previous years. And the "Altai" gas pipeline to China is not a new project at all.

Also, analysts say, there is no need to see a direct link between sanctions against Russia because of the situation in Ukraine. Relations between Russia and China, therefore, do not have a clearly expressed political context. Some European experts are sure: Russia planned to sign a contract with China long before the current events in the foreign policy arena.

The US view

Some American analysts are inclined to question the benefits of Russia from signing a gas contract with China, which could in its purposes use the aspirations of the Russian Federation to become more protected from sanctions by Western countries. Experts from the US believe that not everything is so clear on the price of the contract, as it seems: in their opinion, China will pay less to Gazprom than it is done, for example, European countries. Proceeding from this, Russia, analysts believe, nevertheless made concessions. And China, thus, won the signing of the contract - both in terms of price, and in terms of convenience of location of the gas main. In turn, Americans believe, all that Russia has received is an opportunity to show Europe the opportunity to diversify gas supplies. In addition, analysts from the United States point out, Russia is not inclined to consider the option permissible when its economic dependence on China will be greater than that of Europe. And this must be taken into account when building a gas pipeline to China, Gazprom.

Scope of the contract

So, the gas pipeline to China will supply the Russian neighbor with gas in the volume of 38 billion cubic meters annually. Is this a lot or a little? Let's turn to the statistics concerning the structure of natural gas supplies by Russia to different countries of the world. In 2013, Gazprom exported 196 billion cubic meters of fuel via pipelines. This is the highest figure for seven years. The main buyers of Russian gas are foreign countries. In 2012, they purchased 138.8 billion cubic meters of fuel. The main importers of Russian gas were Germany, Turkey and Italy. In turn, 64.4 billion cubic meters of fuel was exported to the CIS countries and the Baltic states in 2012. It turns out that the future volumes of gas supplies to China are about 20% of Gazprom's current indicators. The Chinese market can thus replace half of what the neighboring countries consume and more than a quarter - from European buyers (if we take as a basis indicators of 2012). The question is how soon the same gas pipeline will be built to China, through the Altai.

Why does China need Russian gas?

Some experts are sure: China needs Russian gas no less than Russia - exports. The main factors of this state of affairs are connected with the economy of the PRC and the state of the ecology of this country. In 2013, about a third of the gas in China was of imported origin. The share of imported fuel, as analysts say, in China is growing all the time, as domestic demand increases. If in 2012 the share of gas in energy consumption in China was 5.4%, then in 2014 the figure is expected to be 6.3%.

According to the forecasts of the PRC government, in 2015 the country's economy will need 230 billion cubic meters of fuel. China's own gas production is not so great. They grow (by 12% per year), but not as fast as its consumption (by 18% annually). The environmental factor is also important. China needs to be converted to fuels that cause the least damage to nature. Gas, according to some experts, is the best option. Moreover, very soon the fine scheme of the gas pipeline to China will appear.

Does Russia have competitors?

Now two main suppliers of natural gas to China are Turkmenistan (in 2012 this country supplied about 20 billion cubic meters of fuel to China) and Qatar. In the coming years, experts believe, the export figure from the former Soviet republic may reach 65 billion. Other gas suppliers in China are Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Yemen. It turns out that at the moment Russia is an outsider of the rating, and she, having received a gas pipeline to China, will have to become a strong competitor to other countries.