Is it true that paper books are a thing of the past?

If the printed word is a thing of the past, will it affect our perception and will the thinking process change? The fact that e-books are gaining popularity is no longer in any doubt, but where will such a change in the means of information delivery lead us? As the popularity of electronic devices will affect the development of printed books, it is not yet known and difficult to predict.

Do such usual paper pages stand in a row with clay tablets, parchment scrolls, hand-written and even typed sheets? It seems that this is inevitable, but if so, should the transition to digital books cause concern?

Current statistics

It is still too difficult to answer these questions, on the one hand, because e-books have become widespread recently, and it is not possible to collect fairly accurate data on their impact on the printed word, much less on human thought processes. On the other hand, as the statistics show, the distribution of e-books, especially in comparison with printed ones, does not adhere to a constant number, it is growing or falling.

In 2013, the digital book market sharply increased to 20% of the total number of book sales, and despite the fact that printed literature is still in the lead, these figures greatly frightened representatives of major publishers. However, as early as 2015, the distribution of electronic materials ceased to grow and took an unchanged position in the region of the same 20%.

Projections for the future

Predictions about the struggle between the printed word and the digital one vary, mainly depending on the subjective opinion of experts. Thus, Mike Shatskin, head of the agency dealing with the problems of the distribution of electronic literature, argues that in the next 10-20 years, statistics will change with "accuracy to the contrary," since for many readers the printed book is yesterday. But according to Marianne Wolfe, professor and director of the linguistic center at the University of Massachusetts, books will remain relevant for at least several centuries. The arguments of both sides seem quite reasonable, but it is still too early to draw conclusions.

History of the electronic word

Everyone known Project Gutenberg began to publish literary texts in electronic format in the 70's. In the following decades, books began to be recorded in a hypercard, the first pocket computers with the ability to reproduce electronic texts appeared. Such devices as Palm Pilot, Microsoft Reader and Sony Reader, paved the way for modern tablets and devices for reading electronic books.

In 2007, the company "Amazon" released a series of Kindle - devices based on electronic paper, allowing without harm to the vision to read electronic books. This moment became a turning point in the history of the digital word. Since 2007, the popularity of electronic formats in the literature has increased significantly, not least due to the fact that electronic versions of books were sold much cheaper than printed ones.

Digital literature in the future

Predictions about the development of the digital literature of the future vary, but many see the rapid emergence of interactive books. For example, Robert Stein, the founder of the Institute of the Future of the Book, suggests that in the publication of electronic books and the production of devices for reading, the game industry may be interested. In his opinion, this will help erase the boundaries between the reader, the author and critics. Interactive books will turn reading into a social process, where the opinion of each person about the read can be expressed directly on the margins of the book and heard by the global audience.

Stein argues that the next generation of people will stop perceiving reading as an individual process. This idea will become obsolete in the next 20 years. Shatskin agrees with the prediction of the future widespread distribution of digital books, however, he said, the full archaization of the printed word will not happen very soon. The books have at least half a century. Then people will understand the senselessness of the economic and natural costs of producing heavy and inconvenient paper books, this understanding will be supported by the efforts of electronic device manufacturers to convince us that reading from screens is much more convenient.