Foresight is a new method for building the future. Foresight features

The word "foresight" came from the English "foresight". In translation, it means "looking to the future". To date, foresight is the most effective method that is used to formulate priorities in the sphere of economy, science, technology and society.

Based on the results obtained with such a project tool, special road maps are created. They are the ones that allow solving the problems of shaping the future.

Definition of concept

Foresight is an assessment of the long-term perspective of technology, science, society and the economy, which is being done systematically. The aim of such projects is to define a strategic direction for new technologies and research, which in the future can bring the greatest possible benefits of a socio-economic nature.

History of appearance

Foresight is a methodology that is relatively new. This concept appeared about fifty years ago. The method "foresight" first arose in the project, developed by the American corporation RAND. It was there that the tasks were solved to identify promising technologies in the military sphere.

In the fifties of the last century, the company's specialists faced the problem of the lack of traditionally used methods of forecasting. At the same time, they went their own way. RAND specialists have developed the method of Delphi. Subsequently, many foresight studies began to be based on it.

Further development of the methodology developed by the Americans was received in the seventies of the last century. It was then that the foresight method first arose on a national scale. He was one of the first to be appreciated in the government of Japan. Not so long ago in this state the results of the eighth national foresight were already summed up.

Similar studies are conducted in almost all countries that are members of the European Union, as well as in China. More recently, this list includes Russia.
A new coil in its development foresight was in the nineties of the last century. This was a period when the methodology went beyond the bounds of technology and science. Foresight was used to assess promising markets. Not so long ago, the technique has been used in forecasting social processes and in shaping the structure that is part of national innovation systems.

Application

The foresight method serves to develop long-term strategies for the development of technology, science and economics. At the same time, its results are aimed at increasing competitiveness, as well as on the possibility of maximally effective development of the economic and social spheres.

Foresight is a method in which special attention is paid to the achievement of consensus among the main participants of the most important strategic directions. This is done through the organization of their ongoing dialogue.

However, it is worth bearing in mind that foresight is not a guessing of the future. This method is based on another. He proceeds from the possible options for the future, which can take place under certain conditions.

Foresight directions

The forecasting method is used to monitor technological and global trends. It has a direct impact on the construction of all public policies. One of the foresight's directions is the formation of an expert organization, the reference policy of the country. At the same time, forecasting should point to images of progressive national development.

results

The product of the activity of foresight institutions is the so-called road maps. They are an official document reflecting the likely ways of development of the state in the future. Based on these maps, long-term priorities are being formed in various spheres of public life and politics. Such documents serve as key tools for public figures, since they are the basis for elaborating the country's development goals and strategy; When making important decisions in conflict or in problem situations; To coordinate the public and political activities of the state.

Methods

The most popular in recent years has been the method of forecasting, called Delphi. It is based on data from a survey conducted among a large number of experts (2-3 thousand), as well as the organization of feedback through the second stage of the survey.

In studies, this method of foresight is often used. The variety of the method, called Delphi, has already found its application in Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and some other countries. For the survey, only highly qualified specialists are selected and expert commissions are established in separate areas. At the same time, a list of public topics is being developed, economic and scientific and technological achievements, the appearance of which is expected in the long term (up to twenty five to thirty years).

Participating in the research experts assess each of the topics, identify the availability of the necessary resources. Potential barriers that can arise in the practical implementation of the most important direction are established.

There is another method of foresight. The variety of the method for forecasting the future, called Critical Technologies, is widely used in France, the United States, the Czech Republic and some other countries. The necessary data are generated on the basis of the knowledge of highly qualified experts. They compile a list of critical technologies in the research areas. Usually no more than two hundred experts are involved in such a force. At the same time, the prospect of forecasting does not exceed five to ten years.

Almost every foresight project is made using the method of expert panels. This method is considered basic. To implement it, a group of experts is formed from twelve to twenty people. They are offered a certain theme and given several months to think about possible options for the future. At the same time, it is possible to use the latest information and analytical developments and materials.

The peculiarity of the expert panel method is the openness of the foresight process itself for many people. The main advantage of the method is the interaction of representatives of various fields of activity and scientific disciplines, which in other conditions is very difficult to organize.

In the late seventies of the last century, Motorola developed a new forecasting method. It is called road mapping. The main area of its application is the development of long-term strategies for large companies or technological industries. The essence of this method is to plan all the main components of the business. This applies to finance and marketing, technology and derivative infrastructures, the market and services. The main advantage of road mapping is the development of an agreed vision of the long-term development goals pursued by the company.

Method Selection

The approaches that can be used in foresight projects are constantly updated. New methods are emerging. Their choice depends on many factors. These include time and resource constraints, access to information sources, etc. However, the key condition that guarantees the success of the project is the use of such a method that would ensure the most effective work of the group of experts involved.

Conclusion

So what is foresight? This is a special technology through which long-term forecasting is performed. In other words, it is a definite way of building a balanced, coordinated and responsible model of our future. Foresight 2030, 2050, etc., is the main result of research.

The vision of the future is reflected in various documents that are the basis for the development of long-term programs and development strategies for countries.