Simulation models. Stages of development of simulation models

Imitational technologies rely on the construction of various examples of real systems that respond to the professional context of a particular situation. Simulation models that correspond to the requirements of the given moment are compiled, and the learner is immersed in the work with which the subject is immersed. Existing in the techniques of simulation and simulation-game simulation is accompanied by the reproduction of sufficiently adequate processes occurring in reality. Thus, training makes it possible to form a real professional experience, despite quasi-professional activity.

Roles

In the process of teaching play procedures are proposed that offer built-in simulation models, hence, distribution of roles is also envisaged: students communicate with each other and with the teacher, imitating professional activity. Therefore, imitation technologies are divided into two parts - game and non-game, and helps determine the type of analysis of the proposed situation. To do this, it is necessary to clarify the system of external conditions that prompt us to begin active operations. That is, all the problems, phenomena, interrelated facts that characterize the situation, imitation models should accommodate.

A certain event or a specific period of the organization's activity requires from the head adequate orders, decisions and deeds. The method of analysis of the study of specific situations - a detailed and in-depth study of the real situation or created artificially, the identification of characteristic properties. This contributes to the development of analytical thinking of trainees in the search for a systematic approach to solving the problem, identifying options for erroneous solutions, and analyzing the criteria for optimal solutions. Thus, professional business contacts are established, decisions are made collectively, conflicts are eliminated.

Situations

There are four types of situations: first, the situation of the problem is examined, where the trainee is to find the reasons for the occurrence, to put and solve the problem, then the situation is to be evaluated according to the decisions taken. After this, a situation is constructed illustrating all the subjects of this course, illustrating examples, and the problems just solved are taken as a basis, and the situation-exercise completes the topic, where imitation models solve non-difficult problems by the analogy method-these are the so-called learning situations.

Specific types of situations are different: it's classic, and living, the situation is an incident, the situation with the analysis of business correspondence, as well as actions on instructions. The choice is determined by many factors: the purpose of the study, the level of preparation, the availability of technical means and illustrative material - it all depends on the individual style of the teacher, whose work is not limited to strict regulations, either by choice of varieties or by analysis methods. Here are the first stages of the development of simulation models.

Practical assignments

In practice, the ideas of the contextual approach are best embodied, because they consist of concrete and real life situations: a case, a story that contains a simulation model, an example of a description of events that took place or quite possible, resulting in errors in solving production problems. The task is to identify and analyze these errors when applying the idea and concept of this course.

Such a plan professional training is quite realistic and effective in comparison with the formulation of individual issues that are considered purely theoretically. Orientation of situational learning is such that skills and knowledge are taught not as an object, but as a means for solving all kinds of problems that arise in the activity of a specialist. Training situations are built on real professional production fragments taking into account all interpersonal relationships, which is extremely important for the successful operation of the enterprise. Trainees receive the outline and context of future professional activity.

Choice of situations

This is one of the most difficult teaching tasks. An exemplary learning situation usually meets the following requirements:

1. The scenario is based on reality or taken from life. This does not mean that it is necessary to provide a production fragment with numerous details and technological subtleties that will distract the student from solving the main task. Production jargon in this case is also inappropriate.
2. The training situation should not contain more than five or seven points, which are commented on by students using terms in the vein of the concept under study. An imitation model, an example of which is difficult to solve, is unlikely to teach students quickly.
3. But the educational situation should be deprived of primitive: besides five to seven moments of the studied problem, two or three links must be present in the text. Usually, problems do not unfold in life on separate shelves for sequential resolution. Problems in production are usually interrelated with social or psychological problems. It is especially important in teaching the application of the ideas of the course.

Text of the training situation

For example, Irina Ivanova - sales manager in the company "Lotus Flower", specializing in hygiene, cosmetics and perfumery. She came to this place in connection with the increase six months ago. The conversation with the chief manager on the basis of her work will be held in ten days.

Before that, Irina had been successful for two years in a separate section of the company, for example, she was selling hygiene products, and she was extremely pleased with it. She was respected, she was popular with sellers and acquired many loyal customers.

Development of the situation

Of course, she was delighted with the increase and began to work enthusiastically in her new position. However, for some reason, things did not go well. She did not have time to work in the office, because she was almost always in the hall and watched the actions of the sellers. I even had to take work at home. And still she did not have time to do anything: the request of the authorities to prepare ideas for the exhibition and sale was completed on the last day, because previously nothing interesting was invented, creativity is not such a simple matter. The sick typist was unable to reprint the papers with Irina's ideas. As a result, Irina did not fulfill the assignment scheduled by her superiors. At this point, the simulation models of training would most of all help her.

After that, everything went wrong. Spending time talking with a regular client, Irina did not consider the speech when her colleague solemnly received the certificate, even was late for the ceremony. Then several times her subordinates left the workplace, without warning. The HR department repeatedly reminded her about the need to create a training program on the use of medical cosmetics, but Irina could not contact the teacher from the medical institute. She was always too late to represent junior vendors for the position of senior. And Irina did not prepare a quarterly report with the forecast of the assortment. And I did not even answer a few letters from clients who want to receive the goods by mail. And as cherry on the cake - a recent quarrel with one of the previously highly respected sellers about the price tags. It turns out to be not so easy to be a good manager.

Analysis of the situation

The simulation model is first of all a reading of the situation. Here is the following picture of six paragraphs with subparagraphs.

1. The new work has changed. What are their restraining and impelling forces?
2. Before the change - the presence of self-esteem and knowledge of the mechanism of sales.
3. Motivation in the desire to succeed, but also to maintain the ability to sell - role conflict.
4. The style of management is the total inability to give part of the authority to the subordinates. Collisions with subordinates can not be avoided.
5. In the new role: she did not determine the specifics of the position, the size of the load, she did not solve the simple problem with reprints, sketches planning and control, allows non-attendance to work for subordinates, disrupts the training plan for staff, does not know how to organize her time and prioritize, loses creativity - new ideas are missing .
6. The style of entrusting the entrusted staff: allows vertical conflict, interferes in the affairs of subordinates, is not confident in itself, manages without the help of management.

Identifying problems

The structure of simulation models suggests the second step to identify emerging problems for their consistent solution. Here you need to follow these same points, given the analysis done, but considering the situation for a different purpose.

1. Changes: Are there ways to manage change and how, how to reduce resistance to the changes that have occurred.
2. Styles of the guide: why Irina's style is unsuccessful, and in favor of which it is better to refuse it.
3. Motivation: what the management theory says about stimulating Irina and sellers.
4. Specificity of the work objectives: is Irina aware of all the details regarding the new work, what were the goals and how to achieve them.
5. Planning and control: whether Irina planned her actions as a manager, whether they were controlled.
6. Conflict: what is the cause and problem of the conflict and how could you cope with it.

Thematic links

The use of simulation models helps to build the situation from origin (motives), revealing the motives for its beginning, before moving to a new quality. How it will be depends on how the analysis is done and what conclusions are drawn. No situation can do without binding topics. Most often imitation models reproduce reality not in all aspects, but several such bundles must be present in the game necessarily. Here they are as follows.

1. Irina did not see any differences in the work of the manager and the seller.
2. Irina was ill-prepared for the new position.
3. Irina has no fundamental knowledge about management.

Development of coherent motives

What is possible and what must be done about the connecting topics?

1. First of all, information transfer is necessary. The authorities of Irina are obliged to show her specific requirements for work immediately after the appointment. Irina should put the subordinates in the notice of the style of their management at work.
2. Secondly, it is necessary to teach Irina the basics of management, her subordinates - methods of sales, and, of course, Irina and subordinates should be trained in interpersonal interaction.
3. Thirdly, it is necessary to clearly plan the functional duties of Irina as the manager and activity of the whole department as a whole.
4. Fourthly, there must be proper personnel management: Irina needs help in defining the goal and priority both permanently and long-term, that is, the HR department has a sense to plan the development of the skills of employees in whom the firm is interested.

This entire topic is directly related only to the transfer of information.

Recommendations on the work of the firm

When the game comes to the stage of summing up and conclusions, it becomes clear what imitation models are and how they are useful. Conclusions are very precise and concrete, almost all of them, because the situation could be disassembled to the smallest detail.

• First, the manager must agree on the specifics of the work with the authorities and deliver the results to the subordinates.
• Secondly, all priorities and goals should be clear to the manager and also explained to the rest of the staff.

Irina needs to master the management techniques in managing her own time, in control and planning, in managing people and any conflict, in circulating new information among the team and in its development.

Irina needs to know in detail in the personnel department about the training procedures, as well as on raising the qualifications of the employees, in order to apply them as correctly as possible. She has to improve her professional level on her own, and in the future, to study. With these recommendations, you can frighten an untrained person, so you should immediately break them into three sections: immediate implementation, recommendations of medium urgency, and the last point is clearly long-term. Irina and her superiors have a reason to discuss the reasons for the failures and do everything so that they do not recur.

Having analyzed, thus, an artificially built situation, each student will understand what imitation models are.

Models of economic development

Socio-economic development differs from other imitation models. This required a separate name to specifically know the scope of this or that situational artificial construction. Dynamic simulation models are designed specifically for forecasting the operation of economic systems. The title emphasizes that dynamics is the most important characteristic of such constructions, and they are based on the principles of system dynamics.

The stages of construction have the following sequence of actions: first a cognitive structuring scheme is built, then the statistical data is selected, and the scheme is specified. The next step is the formation of mathematical models, where cognitive connections are described, then the IDM is aggregated as a whole. There is a debugging and verification of the model, and, finally, multivariate calculations are performed, including forecast ones.

Scripting Method

Scenario analysis, which means a simulation model for assessing the risk of a particular project, is needed to calculate the dangers on the way to the project and ways to overcome them. The risk that threatens investment may be reflected in the deviation of the cash flow intended for this project, contrary to expectations, and the greater the deviation, the greater the risk increases. Each project demonstrates a possible range of design results, therefore, giving them a probabilistic estimate, it is possible to estimate the flow of money, taking into account expert estimates of the probabilistic generation of all these flows or the deviation of all flow components from the expectation values.

The scenario method is good because on the basis of such expert assessments it is possible to build at least three possible development situations: pessimistic, most realistic (probable) and optimistic. Simulation models are computer experiments. The difference from reality is only one thing - it is not the system itself that produces the effect, but its model. Simulation models of systems help out in cases when conducting real experiments is at least unreasonable, and to the maximum - costly and dangerous. Simulation is a way of investigating systems without the slightest degree of risk. It is practically impossible, for example, without imitations to assess the risk of investment projects, where only the forecast data on costs, sales volumes, prices and other components that determine risks are used.

The financial analysis

Models used to solve many of the problems facing financial analysis contain random quantities that can not be controlled by persons who make decisions. These are stochastic simulation models. Simulation allows us to derive the possible results, which serve as the basis for probabilistic distributions of random variables. Also stochastic imitation is often called the Monte Carlo method.

How are the risks of investment projects modeled? A series of numerous experiments is carried out, which purely empirically assess the degree of influence of various factors (i.e., initial values) on the results, wholly and entirely dependent on them. Conducting an imitation experiment is usually broken down into certain stages.

The first step along the experimental path is made by establishing the interrelations between the indicators of the initial and final ones in the form of a mathematical inequality or equation. Then you need to set the machine the laws that distribute the probabilities for the key parameters. Then the computer simulation of all values of the main parameters of the model is carried out, the characteristics of the distributions of the initial and final parameters are calculated. Finally, the analysis of the results that the computer has given out is carried out and a decision is made.