New Silk Road: route, scheme, concept

The last two decades of rapid economic growth in China have turned it into a superpower. With the advent of the new leadership headed by Xi Jinping, the PRC has ceased to conceal its foreign policy ambitions. The project to create the New Silk Road is a logical continuation of China's policy in recent years. The first steps to realize the dream have already been taken: financial resources have been allocated, agreements have been developed with key countries. The plan has several opponents from among the major world powers. Having implemented the project, the PRC will solve not only a number of internal problems, but also globally affect the economic picture of the world. How will the New Silk Road pass?

A grandiose plan

Not long ago, Foreign Minister Wang Yi defined the concept for China's foreign policy "One Belt is One Dream", according to which the construction of the New Silk Road from Asia to Europe is planned. In early 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented a plan to create the Silk Road. Within the framework of the project it is planned to form a giant single economic belt, consisting of infrastructure facilities in many countries. The new Silk Road will pass through Central Asia, Russia, Belarus, Europe. The sea route will follow the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. A variant with routes for African countries is considered.

The PRC is going to invest in the project more than $ 40 billion from a special fund. $ 50 billion has already been allocated by the Asian Bank. The funds will be spent on the construction of railways, ports and other facilities, on the development of relations between the participating countries of the project. The resource Wantchinatimes estimated the total investment of the PRC in 22 trillion dollars.

Attempts to reanimate the Silk Road have already been undertaken by Europe and the United States. China turned to this idea in the last place, but did much more to implement it. Thanks to its impressive financial capabilities and "soft economic aggression" it will be possible to form a safe transit, which will be used by many states. Today, China is actively discussing infrastructure construction projects with participating countries. A more specific scheme of the new Silk Road and the results of lengthy negotiations will be known in the last days of March at the Boao Forum (South China Province of Hainan).

The Silk Road Concept

Today, China supplies the world market with machinery, equipment, electrical and high-tech products. By length of high-speed highways (16 thousand km) the country ranks first in the world. The ancient Silk Road was exclusively a Chinese transport corridor. Today, China declares the creation of an international economic platform.

The initiative to unite the "Economic belt" and the "Sea Silk Road of the XXI century" is carried out within the framework of the program "One belt - one way". The concept of the New Silk Road is to implement the plan with the help of five interrelated elements:

• Common infrastructure;
• Political coherence;
• Currency and financial flows;
• Trade relations;
• Humanitarian communication.

On this basis, and full-scale cooperation is being promoted, strengthening mutual trust between countries, developing economic integration and cultural tolerance. The implementation of the project as a whole was planned on three routes:

• "China - Central Asia - Russia - Europe".
• "China - Central and Western Asia."
• "China - South-East Asia - South Asia".

The New Silk Road. Route

The scale of the project is impressive not only in terms of investment, but also from the point of view of geography. The whole "path" is divided into two routes (by land and sea). The land begins in Xi'an (Shaanxi Province), passing through all of China, followed by Urumqi, crosses such countries of Central Asia as Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Further through the Bosporus Strait it follows to Eastern Europe, to Russia. The new Silk Road, the route of which will pass through the territory of several European countries, will proceed from Rotterdam to Italy.

No less grandiose sea route begins in Quanzhou City (Fuzian Province), it follows through major South China cities, through the Malacca Strait, calling at Kuala Lumpur. Crossing the Indian Ocean, stops in Calcutta (India), Colombo (Sri Lanka), in the Maldives, reaches Nairobi (Kenya). Then the route passes along the Red Sea through Djibouti, through the Suez Canal, to Athens (Greece), to Venice (Italy) and to the land Silk Road.

The economic tasks of the "way"

Being the largest exporter, China largely influences the world economy. According to forecasts, 21 trillion dollars of goods turnover per year is expected within the framework of the Silk Road, which may increase China's share in world GDP to 50%.

It is assumed that the New Silk Road, the construction of which is already in full swing, will redirect the flow of exports of goods and capital to regions that until recently have been left out of international trade. In recent decades, China has been actively cooperating with Asian countries. Investments provided by Chinese state companies are for many developing countries almost the only way to preserve independence among the great powers.

From the economic point of view, the profitability of the project for China is to reduce the cost of logistics. For the countries participating in the Silk Road - in attracting additional funds. An example of such cooperation based on the PRC's investment is the iHavan project in the Maldives (in the future this is one of the important points on the map of the Silk Road).

Regional tasks

The presence of China in Central Asia and Africa is not of a purely economic nature. At the regional level, the political and economic stability of the border regions: East, Central and South-East Asia remains a priority for the PRC. The main barrier to the spread of the Chinese economic phenomenon was the "Chinese threat" factor. To reduce the threat to "no" is planned with the help of a strategy of "soft power", strengthening the cultural influence of the PRC. The number of students in the Asian region, students in high schools of China, reflects the degree of penetration of Chinese culture.

The energy security of the Middle Kingdom largely depends on its control over the sea and land Silk Road. Being the world's largest importer of energy resources, China is 100% dependent on sea supplies. Above the power constantly hangs the threat of an "oil embargo". This tactic was used by the US against Japan before the war.

The new Silk Road will unite many countries, including the opponents of the United States (Russia, Pakistan, Iran). Participating countries can become a powerful political force. An important task related to the creation of the Silk Road is the protection of Chinese investments. Through trade points controlled by the PRC, it is possible to implement not only commercial, but also anti-terrorist objectives. From time to time in the media appears information about the conduct of negotiations on the establishment of the Chinese network of military bases "Pearl thread" in the Indian Ocean.

The impact of the project on China's domestic policy

Large international projects are becoming a top priority in China's domestic policy. The new Silk Road will help resolve several internal tasks.

1. The pro-Chinese economic belt is a lucrative investment project with high payback and long-term profitability.
2. Passing through Western China, the belt will help solve the problems of uneven development of the country, cultural and economic integration of Western regions.
3. Construction of infrastructure facilities is the source of new jobs for state-owned companies in China, which have substantial human resources.

Central Asia and Russia

The territories of Russia and Central Asia, which unite the West and the East, are important for China transit arteries. Today, China is a world factory. The idea of using Central Asia in the interests of the economy was considered from the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the same time, systematic work began in this direction: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, raising the issue of economic cooperation. It was important not only to level the domestic economic situation, but also to prepare a corridor to Europe through Central Asia and Russia.

It is not so important where the New Silk Road will pass: in any case it will become a large-scale "shake-up" of the infrastructure of Central Asia and significantly expand cargo flows from China. The success of the tactics of unification and stability, the only possible on the Silk Road, has been proven historically. Coups, wars between nations led him to a decline, and navigation - to lack of demand. Further attempts to resume the route without unification at the regional level led to nothing.

Central Asia has always been a sphere of Russia's interests. The rapprochement between China and the Russian Federation is a rather complex issue. While it is not clear how the Silk Road will affect the Customs Union and the SCO. Much depends on the position of Kazakhstan, the regional center of Central Asia.

The role of Russia in the project

On the ancient Silk Road, China was the only exporter. The modern way from its predecessor differs precisely in the desire for integration. At the talks in Moscow, China first proposed that Russia use the infrastructure of the economic corridor for trade purposes. Russia, apparently, will have access to ports on the New Silk Road and will take part in the transit of goods. Of course, in this way the PRC solves one of the important tasks - to give impetus to the development and inclusion of Western territories in the international economy.

Russia on the New Silk Road so far only acts as an accomplice, a supplier of raw materials, a transit country. A holistic strategy is required for development within the "path". Governmental, corporate plans of individual companies are not sufficient for this, a unified strategic plan is required . Thanks to China, we have formed a positive image of this project, but there are not really many positive realities for Russia.

After the collapse of the USSR, we left Central Asia and solved internal problems. China for the sake of integration created the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Small states feared the PRC, so security was on the agenda. The PRC raised economic issues related to free trade, the opening of borders. The SCO would be a monopolist in the region, if not for the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union, which showed that Russia has the will and strategic plans for Central Asia. Today, the SCO and the EEA are the only projects in Central Asia, and the latter has more prospects for development, so China is going to negotiate.

Xi Jinping announced several proposals to unify the future economic belt and the EAEC. The idea was supported by V. Putin. The President expressed the opinion that both projects in the aggregate would become a powerful impetus for economic activity on the territory of Eurasia. The projects will be united on the basis of the SCO, which also puts China in the position of leader.

Prospects of the project in Russia

The project of the New Silk Road will help increase trade turnover and develop its own land and sea transport network in Russia. To do this, it is necessary to create a conjugate infrastructure. Today the government of the Russian Federation saves the budget, including cutting down the funds allocated for construction.

The connection of Russia to the route as a whole depends on the degree of development of the domestic railway infrastructure. It was planned that the New Silk Road through Russia would go through the Middle and Southern Urals and the northern regional territories where the construction of the Northern latitudinal railway was in progress. The possibility of extending the main line through the "Midnight - Obskaya" line to Kazakhstan and China is considered. The Northern Urals could be integrated into the "way" by sea or by land, but only by fulfilling the conditions for the modernization of the railway network.

Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Sokolov raised the issue of upgrading the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway, which would allow the creation of a high-speed Moscow-Beijing railway, but no money is expected. In 2015, according to the plan, the financing of BAM and Transsib was to be at least 21 billion rubles. In fact, 16 billion rubles were allocated.

One of the options for including Russia in the New Silk Road is rejected along with the termination of the project for the construction of the Crimean port. Crimea could become a strategic trading base and a new point of entry of the trade route to Europe. Silk road by land in any case will go through one of the European countries, where it is easy to provoke a change of power and block transit. For example, the South Stream stop in Bulgaria. The presence of a trading base in the Crimea will allow you to redirect the movement of goods through any of the countries.

The New Silk Road, bypassing Russia

Ukraine announced its intention to participate in the Silk Road project as an intermediate link for the flow of goods from China to Europe. According to Mikhail Saakashvili, it is more profitable to direct trade flows to the port of Illichivsk, as logistics through it will be no more than 9 days, and through Russia - 30 days. Saakashvili stressed that work is already underway to build roads in the EU, a large bridge is being built across the Dniester Estuary.

China has already thoroughly advanced in implementing the basic version of the road: Kazakhstan - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey. From China, bypassing the territory of Russia, a test container train Nomadexpress, which passed 3,500 km in five days - through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea to Kishli station (not far from Baku), left the territory of Russia. The second route of the New Silk Road will pass through Iran, the third (on the territory of Russia to Moscow and St. Petersburg) is still being discussed. The last route is more profitable: it is shorter than the other two. In addition, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are part of the EEA. The issue of Russia's participation in the project was decided for a long time, the declaration of consent was signed in May 2015.

The variant with the "unreliable" PRC considers it quite acceptable. The Chinese ambassador said that the PRC banks are ready to invest $ 20 billion in the infrastructure of Ukraine. Does this mean that the New Silk Road will appear to bypass the territory of the Russian Federation? Wait and see. It is quite obvious that China is considering several variants of the route, just like in ancient times.

The direction "Kazakhstan-Russia-Belarus" is most beneficial for China, but Russia has not joined the concept of the "New Silk Road" and defends its own interests related to the EAGE. Ukraine is really convenient for the organization of transportation, but it is not suitable for large investments due to its instability. The game of the PRC with "unflogged" strengthens the Chinese position in the negotiations with the Russian Federation. Of course, the route "Kazan - Moscow - Petersburg ..." on the Silk Road will still be discussed.