Will the dollar grow in 2014? The forecast of the dollar for 2014

In late 2013 and early 2014, the ruble fell significantly against the dollar. But by June, the situation, as the charts of trading on international currency markets show, was more in favor of the Russian bank note. Which of the trends is considered fundamental? Will the dollar grow in 2014 in the following months in relation to the ruble and other world currencies?

Fundamental factors of ruble weakening

Experts of the international currency market , trying to assess the prospects for Russian money, formed two camps. The representatives of the first are sure that the ruble will continue to weaken in the future, as it did in the first months of 2014. They are opposed by analysts (mostly government officials) who believe that there should be no concern about the national currency rate. At the same time, the figures are eloquent: at some points in the trading session, the US dollar was worth 35 rubles or more, reaching historic highs.

What are the reasons for the fact that the ruble so significantly "sagged"? Experts identify several groups of factors. Firstly, the Central Bank significantly weakened control over the currency trading involving the ruble. Thus, without intervention, the Russian currency was slightly weaker than if they were available. Secondly, the growth of the dollar contributed to the citizens of Russia themselves, actively buying American money. Thirdly, there is an interesting factor - to the government from an economic point of view, a weak ruble is profitable, since most of the exported goods are sold for foreign currency, mostly just US dollars. Businesses whose products are exported abroad, as well as the country's budget, feel more comfortable because the ruble is losing value.

Ruble and dollar: forecast figures

In the expert environment, the most diverse figures are called, reflecting the further dollar exchange rate for 2014. However, each of the forecasts takes into account very specific reasons for the growth or decline of currencies. Discrepancies in the vision of the dollar against the ruble, therefore, are due to the difference in the experts' assessment of the possible influence of key factors on the value of Russian money. For example, if the price of oil decreases from the current values of just over $ 100 per barrel to 80, then the ruble, analysts believe, will inevitably fall in price to 38-39 units per dollar.

If the price of "black gold" is higher, then the Russian currency with a high probability of synchronously rise in price. It is interesting that the citizens of the Russian Federation themselves are rather pessimistic. As recent sociological surveys have shown , Russians in large part expect the continuation of devaluation phenomena.

Dollar and world currencies: the word to financiers

Analytical agencies and experts working in the homeland of the American currency are trying to determine what the prospects for the bank note are in the market. There are among them those who believe that it is legitimate to make a positive forecast for the dollar, for 2014, at least.

Very much in the vision of the foreign exchange market prospects, experts believe, depends on trades involving other bank notes, in particular, between the pound sterling and the euro. Some US analysts consider it more likely that the British currency will rise in price against the "continental" because the European Central Bank will continue to weaken the policy of intervention in trading. The dollar will grow, experts say, with respect to its counterparts from Canada and New Zealand, as the news about the state of the economies of these countries is not entirely positive.

Is the growth of the dollar fundamental to the ruble?

There is a version that the fall in the ruble's trading exchange rate as the currency of the developing market is due to the fact that in the US - the country with the largest economy of the world - business is being established, as a result of which investors are more trusting the dollar. Approximately the same processes can be traced in Europe. The market of Russia (as well as other developing countries), in turn, as some analysts believe, may seem to investors not attractive enough. The current potential for the development of the Russian economy, say supporters of this point of view, is exhausted - new industries and innovative types of businesses are needed. Among the advantages of the Russian market - the balance of the budget, the availability of international reserves. Oil, analysts believe, with a low probability of falling below $ 100 per barrel. Thus, the further growth of the dollar in 2014 in relation to the Russian currency, on the one hand, has a foundation in the form of the successes of the American economy, and on the other - a counterbalance in the form of relative stability of the Russian market with reserves and liquid export.

The economic factor

Let us dwell on one of the factors determining the growth of the dollar against the currencies of developing countries, including the ruble (and in some cases also the bank notes of developed countries) - it is about the successes achieved in overcoming the crisis by the Americans. Financial institutions related to the US market, called a lot of positive trends, which allow talking about normalization of affairs in the economy of the country.

The monetary policy of the Fed, experts believe, will be sufficiently soft and therefore conducive to the growth of stocks on stock exchanges. Treasury bonds will have a stable yield. In turn, the situation on the European market is somewhat different. Bonds of some countries of the Eurozone are beginning to go up. The European Central Bank conducts, according to analysts, not quite effective monetary policy.

Negative for the "American" scenario

In mid-June 2014, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve on further monetary policy was held. Right at the time when the Federal Reserve's press conference was going on , the dollar fell sharply in value. The Fed decided to lower the expected figures for the growth of the US economy in 2014, as well as leave the previous calculations for 2015-2016 in force. The level of inflation is expected by the financiers, the situation with unemployment promises to improve somewhat.

However, the deficit of the US trade balance increased much more than planned - mainly, analysts believe, because of the fall in exports. The Fed plans to keep the value of the minimum interest rates. Experts do not expect any revolutionary changes in the monetary policy of the United States, so not many are resolved to give decisive forecasts for the growth of the dollar. 2014, therefore, may not be for the US currency key in terms of consolidating positions relative to the money of developed countries, as well as the pound and the euro.

Factors affecting the exchange rate

What determines the market price of national currencies? Similar to the pricing process for any other goods, the main mechanism that determines the cost of banknotes of different countries is demand and supply. In turn, the conditions for the formation of the parameters of these two phenomena depend on several other factors. Among them - the foreign trade balance of the country, which is the issuer of the currency, the monetary policy of the authorities (central banks), as well as political priorities. Regardless of the time period in which the growth dynamics of the dollar - 2014 or the other, - these patterns are relevant.

Foreign trade balance as one of the key factors

The receipt of foreign currencies on the national market depends on the magnitude of exports of goods and services. Exporters, in order to pay the costs associated with the production of their products, buy the national currency - the greater the volume of sales abroad, the higher, respectively, the demand for domestic banknotes of the country and the higher its rate at the auction. Importers, in order to buy something abroad, must first acquire foreign currency.

They form demand for it within the country. The more intensive the import, the more there is the demand for foreign banknotes, and the lower the rate of national money. For the dollar, all these patterns are just as relevant. Therefore, investors, assessing the likelihood of whether the dollar will grow in 2014 and with what intensity, primarily study foreign economic statistics of the United States. An important factor determining the figures in the currency trading is the balance of payments of the state. If it is positive, it contributes to the growth of the national currency. Therefore, if the economy in the US this year will go well, and the balance will be characterized by positive trends, then the dollar exchange rate for 2014 with a high probability will be predicted as high.

Currency emission as a factor in the formation of the exchange rate

The main forms of supplying the currency of the market - its printing and issuing loans to private banks, both types of operations are produced by the state and associated financial structures. If the supply of money economy is rapid, then the intensity of demand for banknotes may not keep up with it, so that the exchange rate may fall. Experts, forming the forecast of the dollar for 2014, thus assess the activity of printing banknotes by American financial institutions, as well as their activity in the field of lending to private banks. For example, in the 2008 crisis in the United States, the so-called Paulson plan was adopted. Under this project, banks were required to receive loans, and securities from financial corporations - to be redeemed.

Other states sometimes take similar measures - for example, in Russia until 2006, compulsory partial sale by exporters of foreign exchange earnings was practiced. In addition, carrying out various kinds of intervention in the national market, central banks can support the rate of domestic money artificially. Assessing the likelihood that the dollar will grow in 2014 relative to the ruble, experts are thus looking at the policy of the Central Bank of Russia regarding the intervention in currency trading.

The dollar as a "safe haven"

By any calculation methodology, the US economy is the largest and one of the most stable in the world. Therefore, the dollar has a huge reserve in the form of trust from investors from around the planet. An important factor is the history of the currency. Dollar several centuries, and for the entire period of its turnover in the market it was one of the main means of international settlements. There is the term "currency-refuge". To the US dollar, it is used by many experts in the first place (even to denominations of this type is often referred to as the Japanese yen). These currencies are considered as one of the most stable due to the set of many factors. Therefore, investors, trying to save themselves from the costs of raw materials, for example, markets, often sell their assets and transfer them to "safe haven". This creates significant prerequisites for a positive response to the question of whether the dollar will grow in 2014. "Yes," say experts who highly value the historical role of the US currency, as well as the colossal scale of the US economy.