Will South Ossetia join Russia in the near future?

Last year, representatives of the domestic media actively discussed the question of whether South Ossetia will join Russia. Today, it has not lost its relevance due to the fact that the leaders of both states are making every effort to sign an agreement on integration and alliance.

Members of "United Ossetia" for joining

In the parliamentary elections, the faction "United Ossetia" won a majority, and its leader Anatoly Bibilov, responding to a question about whether South Ossetia will join Russia, said that he would like this reunion.

At the same time, earlier the Russian mass media wrote about the fact that Moscow is not very interested in such political consolidation. Despite this, the head of the ruling party was ready to determine by means of a popular vote whether South Ossetia would join Russia.

The first hearing and the question of joining

After the first parliamentary hearings, Anatoly Bibilov said that the deputies of the legislature came to the conclusion that the issue of erasing the administrative borders between the above-mentioned states should be solved by the Ossetian people.

Previously, the question of whether South Ossetia will enter Russia would have been raised repeatedly by political analysts of Tskhinval, but one of the phrases voiced by Bibilov gave a clear understanding of how the leading party is set up to reunite with the Russian people.

"We firmly follow the declared slogans and we will not allow any double standards in our political intentions. The question of whether South Ossetia will join Russia this year will be put to a referendum. At the same time, we should not forget that a consolidated and capable parliament should initiate such a decision, "the politician said.

Nevertheless, the talks about holding a referendum, where the question of whether South Ossetia will join Russia this year, did not cause a serious stir.

In the past, an assistant to the head of the Russian state paid a visit to Tskhinval to discuss with the Ossetian authorities the possibility of erecting modern real estate in the capital of the RSO. At that time, Anatoly Bibilov did not miss the opportunity to state once again that the fate of the question of whether South Ossetia will join Russia in the near future will depend on the will of the people.

The opinion of society

It should be noted that a certain part of Tskhinvali's political scientists doubted that the decision to destroy the administrative borders between Russia and the RSO would be taken in a nationwide vote. Not the least role in the issue of accession is played by the opinion of the inhabitants of North Ossetia, as they are like no one, close to the mentality of the South Ossetians. In addition, if, for example, the question of whether South Ossetia will join Russia in the next year will be resolved positively, in fact such an act will not be considered as an extension of the borders of the above-mentioned republic. In fact, the consolidation of the north and south will occur, as a result of which there will be one subject of the Russian Federation - Ossetia.

What the survey showed

It should be noted that the representatives of the South Ossetian public do not have a single point of view as to whether South Ossetia will join Russia. The war with Georgia, it would seem, put all the points above the "and". Anyway, but statistics - a stubborn thing.

So, will South Ossetia join Russia? Who is for this? It turned out that only 79% of respondents. The same number of residents of the RSO support the policy of the leader of the faction "United Ossetia" Anatoly Bibikov.

It should be emphasized that the residents of North Ossetia also disagree about whether South Ossetians should be reunited with Russians. Our citizens also gave ambiguous answers to the above question

About 12% of the respondents said that at the moment it is not appropriate for Russia to erase the territorial borders with South Ossetia, since this can entail additional sanctions from the US and Europe.

It is noteworthy that a large part of respondents to the question of whether the sanctions of the West have a negative influence gave a negative answer.

About 8% of the respondents opposed the idea of South Ossetia becoming a part of Russia, because they have confidence that South Ossetia is an economically weak republic, which could negatively affect the development of a number of regions of the North Caucasus.

Anyway, many Ossetians believe that Bibilov's initiative with a referendum will not be implemented and will remain in the status of a promise. It should be noted that the question of joining the RSO to the Russian Federation was already put to the referendum in the 1990s, but he did not have a political continuation.

It is very likely that today's referendum will be formal.

The risk of Georgian aggression

For many political scientists, it remains a mystery whether South Ossetia will join Russia. The border with Abkhazia has been established for several years, but, in spite of this, many remember the monstrous Georgian aggression. In this connection, officials of South Ossetia came out with a proposal to conclude a military alliance with Russia. Head of the administration of the presidential administration of the RSO Chochiev commented on the situation as follows: "We asked the head of the Russian state to conclude an agreement on military cooperation in order to consolidate the grouping of troops and strengthen social guarantees in South Ossetia." The official added that the project will be discussed in the very near future.

"We recommended that international organizations influence Tbilisi, so that the Georgian authorities join the agreement on the non-use of force. Unfortunately, during numerous discussions the Georgian leadership refused to sign the above-mentioned agreement, and I am convinced that no one will give us guarantees that the aggression from the above-mentioned state will be ruled out. I note that the attack on the RSO and Russia in 2008 happened at the then guarantees of non-use of force, "said Chochiev.

The threat of annexation

Of course, today many are concerned about the question whether South Ossetia will join Russia. Abkhazia, Russia have already developed a "unified security circuit" for themselves, and it would be reasonable for the RSO to create it for themselves. The Abkhaz state has concluded an agreement with the Russian Federation on cooperation, which involves strategic partnership and the formation of joint armed forces.

The head of the Russian state, Vladimir Putin, stressed that this year Abkhazia will allocate about 5 billion rubles, with funding to be carried out annually at a rate of 4 billion rubles.

With this in mind, the South Ossetian authorities should unequivocally decide whether South Ossetia will join Russia. Abkhazia and Russia are strategic partners, but, unfortunately, not all approve of such cooperation. In particular, the representative of the Georgian government, Zurab Abashidze, condemned the international integration of Abkhazia and Russia, positioning it as "a step towards annexation of Abkhazia".

Also, the reaction was expected from NATO. The above-mentioned strategic partnership and cooperation agreement was not recognized by the representatives of the North Atlantic Alliance. The US explains this by the fact that the document is concluded in violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia.

One way or another, but at the moment the question does not lose relevance: "Will South Ossetia join Russia?" Abkhazia has already made its choice, and it can be confidently asserted that it did not lose from this, but, on the contrary, it won.

Will there be pre-election promises made?

For many political scientists, it remains unclear why the Ossetians did not immediately follow the path of the Abkhazians and did not sign a partnership agreement with the Russian Federation. Will South Ossetia join Russia? Abkhazia - Russia or not? Will it join the Union of the RSO? The ambiguity in these issues is partly dictated by the peculiarities of the mentality of the Ossetian people and the unpreparedness of officials to radical changes. As already emphasized, the situation began to change when Anatoly Babilov won the parliamentary elections, who promised to reunite Russia and the South Ossetians even during the pre-election debates .

Treaty on military cooperation

For the sake of justice, it should be noted that more than eighty agreements on cooperation have been signed between the RSO and the Russian Federation . It would seem, where else? Anyway, but there was not enough official document that would regulate military coordination between the South Ossetian Armed Forces and the 22nd base. The Russian military department has concluded a large number of economic agreements with the leadership of the RSO: on pensions, on supplies, on awards and titles. However, there was a gap in the legal field when it came to talking about military cooperation in the event of force majeure circumstances.

It should be noted that the Abkhaz authorities took the news of their intentions to conclude the above-mentioned agreement with hostility: if the Russian general were to command the republican army, then the independent state would lose its sovereignty. Residents of South Ossetia, by contrast, approve of the signing of an agreement on military cooperation.

The ruling party is active

The head of the party "United Ossetia" Anatoly Bibilov, in his turn, constantly declared that under favorable conditions the legislative bodies of both states will be able to ratify the agreement in the near future. He even called an approximate date when this could happen - the first decade of 2015.

Bibilov added that the signing of the document on strategic partnership with Russia will enable both countries to get out of the impasse into which they were driven by the Geneva agreements.

"It's not the first year that these agreements exist, but there's practically no effect from them. Also, there are no concrete steps and absolutely no measures are being taken to agree on a non-aggression pact, "the official said.

The head of the faction "United Ossetia" did not exclude the fact that the opposition in the person of the Tbilisi leadership will obstruct the contracting parties.

"Georgian officials have become completely dependent on the decisions of the United States, so the factor of Abkhazia and Crimea in Tbilisi will play an important role. Whether we conclude an agreement with Russia or not, we will still be stuck in the wheel, "Bibilov stressed.

For many parliamentarians of South Ossetia, the question remains whether South Ossetia will join Russia or return to independence. Opinions were divided, but a large number of deputies favor integration of Russia and South Ossetia.

"The main national idea of our people is to establish partnership relations with Russia in the social and military-political sphere, up to the destruction of administrative borders," said one of the parliamentarians of the RSO.

"A sly plan

As noted above, Tbilisi officials interpret the issue of whether South Ossetia will join Russia or return to Georgia. They are categorically against the cooperation of Russia and the RSO in the military sphere.

"Representatives of Georgian diplomacy are already trying to do everything possible to prevent the creation of the above-mentioned alliance. On the side of Tbilisi are authoritative international organizations and Western politicians who view the Kremlin's actions as one of the forms of occupation and annexation, "the media reported.

Paata Zakareishvili, who is an official who oversees issues of civil equality in the Georgian government, gave a negative assessment of the rapprochement between Russia and South Ossetia. He added that the Kremlin is playing a dishonest game with the South Ossetia and Abkhazia, because at first it recognized the independence of these republics, and today it is trying to take away the once approved sovereignty, inciting the parties to sign illegal agreements of an international legal nature.

Anyway, but the opposition forces accuse the Cabinet of Ministers of the Georgian Dream of inadequacy and urge it to pursue a more harsh policy. The faction of former Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili - "United National Movement" - approves the introduction of additional sanctions for Russia from the West. In 2008, the European Union did not realize how dangerous the actions of the Russian authorities towards neighboring countries are. Today came the turn of Ukraine. However, it is very important that the European community gives guarantees of protection against Russian aggression not only to Ukraine, but also to Georgia. Such a position was expressed by the representative of the Nationals Party, Giorgi Baramidze.

In addition, supporters of Saakashvili urge to terminate all agreements with Russia.

The reaction of the Kremlin

Last year, representatives of the presidential administration repeatedly stated that both the head of state Vladimir Putin, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov, and the current prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, rejected the idea of wiping the administrative borders between Russia and South Ossetia. This decision was also dictated by the fact that Moscow earlier officially recognized the independence of the RSO, and this fact is taken into account first of all in building international relations with the neighboring republic.

The principle of independence also forms the basis of cooperation in the military sphere, despite the fact that about eighty agreements have already been concluded.

Of course, first of all, the interest in uniting Russia and South Ossetia was felt in Tskhinval itself, and the solution of this issue depended more on the will of the Ossetian people. For the sake of justice, it should be noted that, according to sociologists, the public of South Ossetia feels more protected from external threats when it is under Russian jurisdiction. But in conditions of sovereignty, the guarantees of calm seem to them unsteady. In any case, the South Ossetians should strive to create a capable and economically developed state, which is inconceivable without cooperation with the Russian Federation.

Today's state of affairs

Most recently, the head of the Russian government, Vladimir Putin, addressed to the parliament a draft law that provides for the ratification of an agreement with the RSO on integration and alliance. Only after the deputies approve the normative legal act, it will be finally known whether South Ossetia will join Russia. According to the documents that the parties are planning to sign, Moscow and Tskhinval largely extend the boundaries of cooperation. First of all, we are talking about a treaty that provides for alliance and integration. A serious emphasis will be placed on that part of the agreement, where the provisions for expanding military partnership are prescribed.

Of course, one should not be a genius in order to draw some simple conclusions that stem from such cooperation between the Russian Federation and the RSO. First, at the head of the united armed forces will be representatives of the Russian military department. Secondly, the territorial boundary of South Ossetia from the legal point of view will coincide with the state border of Russia.