In recent years, many people are trying to find out what causes lead to a crisis, and what a recession is. This interest did not arise from scratch. The development of information technologies and the emergence of the Internet allow interested persons to be constantly aware of the processes taking place in the stock and financial markets. Moreover, they have a real opportunity to engage in various kinds of speculation in the foreign exchange market. In open sources, one can find data that people working in this field have incomes much higher than those who are engaged in the real sector of the economy. This is the specificity of the modern world economy.
When answering a question about what a recession is, you need to make a short digression into the story. In the first third of the last century, the US experienced an economic crisis. Volumes of output of commodity output initially slowed down, and then reached zero values. Experts call this phenomenon a crisis of overproduction. Among the most advanced analysts appeared those who calculated the cyclical nature of crisis phenomena in a market economy. Scientists with a world-wide reputation, who received the Nobel Prizes, vied with each other to prove that crises can arise in 3-4 years, or in 7-11 years, or in 15-25. The most popular and popular cycle is 45-60 years. It was calculated by the famous Soviet economist and mathematician Nikolai Kondratiev.
So, what is a recession? This is a decline in production. If within six months the growth of the gross domestic product, everyone knows it as GDP, is zero, or has a negative value, then we can safely conclude that the recession has come. This phenomenon always follows the period of recovery and precedes the period of crisis and depression. This is the state of the economy of developed countries after the crisis that began in 2008. In this context, the outlook for Russia's economic development for the coming years looks very mixed.
According to the rules on the basis of which a modern economic mechanism is built, it is impossible to avoid crisis phenomena in the economy. The classics of liberal approaches do not want to agree with this and try in every possible way to use other words to characterize this phenomenon. Instead of the crisis and depression, it is suggested to use the terms "temporary decline", "slowdown" or "rollback". But whatever the expression, the meaning of these definitions, embodied in real life, is that they lead to a decline in production, a decrease in the incomes of the population, an increase in unemployment. Within the framework of the current mechanism, Russia's economic forecast does not imply a positive development of the situation.
Concluding the conversation about what a recession is, it should be noted that the decline in production occurs for several reasons. The most unpleasant reason is a war or a major conflict that can radically change the situation in the world economy. The second reason is political or psychological. When people in many countries refuse to buy British beef, this has negative consequences for the whole economy of the country. Another reason can be excessive state obligations to certain categories of citizens. They promised to increase pensions, but did not work. So there was a pre-crisis situation.