The statistical method is a lie or objective data for decision-making?

A well-known statement in which statistics is one of three kinds of lies and follows after "just a lie" and "blatant lies" is attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, who was the forties and forty-second (periods fall on the 2nd half of the 19th century) by the British prime minister . However, in our time, the authorship of Disraeli, advertised by Mark Twain, is denied. But, however that may be, many specialists continue to repeat this phrase in their writings or in public speeches, the main content of which is the methods of statistical analysis. As a rule, it sounds like a joke, in which there is only a joke ...

Statistics - a branch of certain knowledge, which describes the procedure for collecting, analyzing and interpreting large amounts of data, both qualitative and quantitative. It concerns various scientific or practical areas of life. For example, application statistics help to choose the right statistical method for processing all kinds of data for analysis. Legal works in the field of offenses and control over them. Mathematical develops mathematical methods, allowing to systematize and use the received information for practical or scientific purposes. Demography describes the patterns of reproduction of the population. Query statistics are more relevant to linguists and the Internet.

The use of statistical methods goes back, at least, to the 5th century BC. One of the earliest records contains a book written in the 9th century AD. E. Arab philosopher, physician, mathematician and musician Al-Kindi. He gave a detailed description of how to use frequency analysis (histogram). New chronicles dating back to the 14th century and describing the history of Florence are considered one of the first positive works of statistics in history. They were compiled by the Florentine banker Giovanni Villani and include a lot of information about the population, management, commerce and trade, education and religious sites.

The early application of statistics is determined by the desire of the state to build a demographically and economically sound policy. Its range was expanded in the early 19 th century and included the collection and analysis of data in general. Today this area of knowledge is widely used by state structures, business, natural and social sciences. Its mathematical foundations, the necessity of which arose from the study of gambling, were laid back in the 17th century with the development of probability theory by the French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. The statistical method of least squares was first described by Carl Friedrich Gauss about 1794.

Fast and steady growth of computing power, starting from the second half of the 20th century, had a significant impact on the development of applied statistics. The computer revolution has placed new emphasis on its experimental and empirical components. Now a large number of both general and special programs are available, with which you can easily use any statistical method, be it control charts, histograms, correlation analysis, checklist, stratification method, Ishikawa scheme or Pareto analysis.

Today, statistics is one of the key tools for conducting effective business and organizing production. It allows you to understand and measure the trends of variability, resulting in improved process management, as well as improve the quality of products and services. So, for example, managers who use statistical methods of quality control take, as a rule, justified decisions, thus management works efficiently and brings the expected fruits. Therefore, statistics in this case is the key and, perhaps, the only reliable tool.

The ability to choose and correctly apply the statistical method allows you to obtain reliable conclusions and not to mislead those to whom the analysis data is provided. Therefore, the frequent mention by experts of the old statement about the 3 degrees of lies should be seen as a warning against mistakes that can mislead and underlie decisions with devastating consequences.