Taxes from physical persons and features of an estimation of their efficiency

Accumulation of funds in the budget, due to low tax discipline and deformations in the behavior of economic agents, usually leads to undesirable consequences: the reduction of private investment due to government and, consequently, the lack of GDP growth (the so-called crowd-out effect, American economist R. Barroso). Matters the question, how characteristic is this effect for the modern national economy?

Checking the relationship between the dynamics of public and private investments, taking into account the time lags of the delay in the reaction of private investment, shows that the closer it is to the value of unity, the closer correlation is observed. However, as the market moves to the market, the situation changes: there is an increase in the correlation between these macro parameters.

Analysis of the relationship between the dynamics of public expenditure and monthly GDP growth also showed that there is a close relationship between government spending and the volume of national production in the Russian economy. You can consider government spending as an essential lever of impact on macrodynamics.

Are taxes from individuals in our economy regarded as an anticyclic lever and a stimulator of economic growth, or only as a way of replenishing the treasury?

Direct taxes, according to the Keynesian approach, are automatic levers of fiscal policy, because their amount is almost directly proportional to the incomes of economic entities and to the fact that taxes are brought from individuals, hence, to the volume of the gross domestic product.

In this regard, their change should be more effective in influencing macrodynamics than changing indirect taxes. But according to the theory of supply, such a fall can be slowed down by a lowering of the rate of proportional tax. This theoretical premise was one of the reasons for the development in the Russian Federation of a project of gradual shifting of priorities for taxes from individuals, which contributes to the predominance of direct taxes. These are for today: land, income, for the purchase of foreign currency, property, advertising, as well as fees: customs, parking, for border clearance, cleaning of territories. Individuals pay contributions to the pension fund, and those who are PIs are registered.

However, the structure of tax revenues to the budget, including personal income tax , and other income from them, is somewhat different compared to other countries - we have indirect taxes. Therefore, the functional mathematical dependence of GDP dynamics on the amount of direct tax charges will include automatic change of parameters. The analysis of statistics shows that the most effective leverage influencing macrodynamics is the share of direct tax collections from GDP, and not such as the personal income tax.

In connection with this, when developing a fiscal strategy, it is important not only to know about the effectiveness of direct taxes as a fiscal countercyclical lever, but also the interdependence of some of the tax charges on their own values at previous time intervals. Such a phenomenon can be described using methods of economic analysis.

In economic literature, it is widely believed that the country's economy is very sensitive to tax changes. In addition, it is believed that this dependence has increased in recent years, as evidenced by the high and growing values of the tax multiplier. Such calculations should be treated with caution, because GDP growth, which was the basis for such a calculation, could be provided by other factors. In addition, the formation of the reaction of the level of national production for tax changes takes time, and taxes from individuals - a current phenomenon. Therefore, we should talk about the cumulative effect of tax changes, distributed over time.

Consideration of the effect of taxes on the economy in the conventional form through the mechanism of the so-called tax multiplier is not entirely correct. Since this indicator does not take into account indirect factors. The level of direct taxation is one of the most effective fiscal levers for smoothing cyclical dynamics. But when applied to a sustainable growth policy strategy, three main points should be considered:

• Between the change in the share of direct taxes and the reaction of the volume of national production, there is a lag of lag;
• The effect of taxes on macrodynamics is distributed over time;
• A single change in the tax burden on the economy causes not only prolonged changes in GDP dynamics, but also in the dynamics of tax collections of future periods.