Methodology of income forecasting. Budget revenue planning

The methodology for forecasting income receipts in the budget of the settlement is realized in the context of specific types of deductions, in relation to which the administration is vested with the authority of the chief administrator of the funds. It is used to analyze the amount of amounts that are expected to be received in the next financial period from the population, organizations, institutions. The Administration issues a resolution on the approval of the methodology for forecasting incomes.

Methods of calculation

Planning of budget revenues is carried out by:

1. Direct calculation. This method is based on the direct use of the expected indicators (value and volume), bet levels and other values that determine the value of the expected amounts.
2. Averaging. This method for forecasting income receipts is realized on the basis of calculating the average amount of deductions for a period of at least 3 grams or for the entire term of replenishing the treasury of the MO with the appropriate types of deductions, if it does not exceed three years.

Administration may provide for other methods of calculation.

Payment categories

The developed methodology for forecasting revenue receipts in the budget is used in calculating the expected:

1. The sums deducted from the leasing of material values transferred to the territorial administration bodies and the institutions created by them into operational management. The exception is property of autonomous and municipal budget organizations.
2. Rent, funds from the realization of the rights to conclude agreements on the transfer to use of land, which is the property of administrative-territorial units included in the MO. The exceptions are the allotments of autonomous and municipal budgetary structures.
3. Other amounts deducted from the use of material values, which are the property of administrative-territorial units included in the Defense Ministry. An exception is the property of municipal autonomous and budgetary institutions, unitary, state-owned, including enterprises.

To analyze the expected amount of deductions of these amounts, the income forecasting methodology based on direct and averaged calculation methods is used.

Rent

The methodology for forecasting revenues includes the calculation of amounts that can be transferred by users of land in the coming fiscal year. The following equation is used for this:

A = C x P, in which:

• Rent - A;
• The market value of the allotment is C;
• Refinancing rate of the Central Bank - R.

The price of a plot is determined on the basis of an assessment carried out not more than six months before the signing of the lease agreement. The amount that is supposedly to be deducted for the use of property in the ownership, as well as operational management, is calculated by the formula:

AI = (Amr + Cy + Cc) x K, in which:

• The amount of payment for the rental of property expected to be credited in the next year is AI;
• The estimated amount in the current period is Aitg;
• The magnitude of the decrease in allocations due to the reduction in the areas to be provided for use in the coming year - Cc;
• The amount of increase in income for property in connection with the expected increase in objects leased in the forthcoming period is Su;
• The expected deflator coefficient, which is applied to the rate of payment for the use of tangible assets or to their estimated value next year - K.

To calculate the aggregate amount of these amounts in the forthcoming period, the methodology for forecasting incomes provides the following equation:

AS (p) = (ASI (t) + ASI (t-1) + ASI (t-2)) / 3, in which:

• Rent for property and land - AZI (p);
• ASI (t) ... ASI (t-1) is the actual (estimated) value of annual amounts for 3 years preceding the future.

Amounts from the sale of tangible assets

The revenue forecasting methodology provides the following formula for calculating:

RI = Pl x x St, in which:

• The amount from the sale is RI;
• The average cost of 1 square. M. Real estate, determined by the results of trades, organized in the period preceding the calculated, - St;
• The area of buildings, buildings, premises to be sold in the next year - Pl.

Calculation of the amounts of these amounts for the planning period is performed using the following equation:

RI (p) = (РИ (t) + РИ (t-1) + РИ (t-2)) / 3, in which:

• RI (t) ... RI (t-2) is the estimated (actual) value of the annual deductions for 3 years preceding the next.

Unstable amounts

The average method of forecasting the receipt of non-tax revenues is used in calculating the expected deductions that are performed in an unsystematic manner. The initial data are the average annual amounts of actual amounts received in the previous three years. These indicators are taken from the reports on the implementation of budgetary articles (f. 0503127). To the category of non-regulars, the amounts include:

1. Gosposhlins for the implementation of notarial actions by employees of local government structures having appropriate powers, in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation.
2. From the disposal and sale of confiscated and other material assets converted to the income of settlements.
3. Gosposhlins for the provision by local authorities of a special permit for the movement of motor vehicles carrying heavy / bulky, dangerous goods.
4. Charged by local authorities for the performance of individual functions.
5. From monetary penalties for violations of financial legislation.
6. From compensation for damage caused by misuse or misuse of funds by local administrations.
7. From the collection of fines for violations of Russian regulations on the contract system in the procurement of services, products, works to ensure municipal and state needs.

Formulas

The methodology for forecasting non-tax revenues provides for the following calculation method:

P = (P (m) + P (m-1) + P (m-2) + P (m-3)) / 4, where

• P (m) ... P (m-3) is the actual value of the amounts received for 3 reporting periods;
• P (m) is the estimated amount of funds in the current year.

The last figure is calculated by the formula:

P (m) = (Po (m) / k) * 12, in which:

• Ro (m) - the actual value of the amounts received for the completed period in the current year;
• K is the number of months of the completed reporting period in the current. Year.

The determination of the aggregate amount of the above amounts for the forthcoming period is made using the following equation:

P (p) = (P (t) + P (t-1) + P (t-2)) / 3, in which:

• P (t) ... P (t-2) is the estimated (actual) value of the annual amounts received during the three years preceding the forecasted one.

Gratuitous funds

The amounts of such amounts coming from the regional budget are projected in accordance with the indicators established in the legislative acts of the entity or regulatory documents of the authorities. The amount of gratuitous funds from the district fund, expected to be credited, is calculated according to the values provided in the decision on the composition of financial items for the forthcoming period.

Conclusion

Forecasting budget revenues is particularly important for rural settlements. Using various calculation options, the administration can analyze the amount of funds that can be available to it. This, in turn, provides planning of expenses for the forthcoming periods. Calculation of expected amounts of funds is preceded by an analysis of the amounts already received earlier. In accordance with the results of the assessment, the administration is able to identify promising areas for spending finance, using property that constitutes the property of an administrative-territorial unit, in the operational management of institutions and enterprises. Competently used methods of analysis and calculation allow achieving greater independence from regional and municipal subsidies.