Gasoline, growth

Domestic officials do not cease to convince the population that the rise in prices for gasoline in the near future can not be feared. Recently, they have been repeating it so often that they even begin to believe it themselves. Thus, the deputy head of the department for control over the fuel and energy complex of the Federal Antimonopoly Service, Daria Savina, said that the FAS does not expect any rise in prices for oil products in the near future and sees no prerequisites for this.

Meanwhile, just the prerequisites for growth are more than enough. It's not even that the rise in fuel prices was previously artificially held back during the pre-election period, and another increase in excise taxes for fuel (more than 5%) is planned for the summer.

It is important that wholesale prices for gasoline are already growing. And it is very important. Back in February, the A -95 gasoline index at the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange surged by 7.4% for the month. It is clear that this indicator is only a guide for market participants, and at the most open trades no more than 15% of oil products are sold.

Nevertheless, by the spring, according to the analytical center Cortez, the average wholesale price for, say, AI-92 gasoline in Russia rose by 2.5% to 26.4 thousand rubles. Per ton. As usual, in a few weeks, the wholesalers will also increase prices for retailers. Therefore, in April, prices will increase by at least a ruble.

Already for several years, gasoline in the country has been steadily rising by an average of 10-20%. Deviations from the norm happen, but last no more than a few months.

The only question is how large the price will be. A number of unnecessarily "emotional" experts are already frightening the population at a cost of up to 40 rubles per liter AI-95 by the end of the year. Sometimes there are even more depressing figures. However, the portal MoneyVector does not advise to panic and believe such threatening forecasts. Already for several years, gasoline in the country has been steadily rising by an average of 10-20%. Deviations from the norm happen, but last no more than a few months. Thus, oil companies smoothly but steadily increase prices "just above" official inflation. Thanks to this scheme, the authorities manage to avoid too much popular discontent, but regularly raise budget revenues at the expense of motorists.

The reasons to believe that officials and oil workers will depart from this scheme this year, no. Naturally, after the winter "freezing" of prices there will be some acceleration. If it is too intense, then the authorities traditionally will not have the pleasure of "exemplarily demonstrating" lowering the price of gasoline to another ruble. This means that, in general, until the next winter, the average price, for example, of a liter of AI-95 should not be more than 35 rubles.