Russia's record foreign debt and the outflow of capital from the country: what the figures say and what to expect in the future

In early October 2013, the website of the Russian Central Bank appeared disappointing and at the same time alarming statistics on the dynamics of foreign borrowings of the Russian Federation. If you look at the figures that describe the state of Russia's external debt, 2013 promises to be another record high. According to preliminary data, as of October 1, the total amount of borrowings broke the record and amounted to approximately $ 719.6 billion. This value is more than 13% higher than at the end of 2012. At the same time, the Central Bank predicts this year the outflow of capital from the Russian Federation at 62 billion, which looks a little more optimistic compared to the previous estimate (67 billion). What is the meaning of these figures and what do experts think about this? And will be discussed in our article.

Interrelation of indicators

If you take into account the impressive amount of current gold and foreign exchange reserves (about $ 515 billion), it may seem that the problem of Russia's external debt is somewhat bloated. Indeed, the share of state obligations in the total amount of borrowings is relatively small and is equal to $ 63.3 billion (8.8%). As of October 1, the value of GDP was 48 trillion 869.325 billion rubles, which at the current rate of 32.2663 rubles / dollar. Corresponds to 1 514.56 billion. A simple calculation of the ratio of the actual state obligations to the volume of gross domestic product leads to a result of about 4.2%. This is a very low figure, and from this point of view, if we compare Russia's external debt to the situation in the US, where the country is facing a technical default, there seems to be no need to worry. However, let's see what analysts think about this.

Expert evaluation

Alexander Morozov, who is HSBC's chief economist for CIS countries and Russia, focuses on the low current account surplus for the third quarter (+ $ 29.500 billion). For the same period in 2012, this figure was twice as high (+61.500 billion $). And if we consider the third quarter separately, the figures look even more depressing: only $ 1.1 billion, which is five times less than in the comparable period last year. Given that the net outflow of capital is still negligible, a low surplus is bad news. Moreover, A. Morozov believes that this indicator is likely to be revised downward. In turn, Daria Zhelannova, deputy. Director of the analytical department of Alpari, commenting on Russia's current external debt, recalls the difference in methods of calculating the debt from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. The latter takes into account only the sovereign obligations of the country, and in this case there is nothing to worry about. But the Central Bank, in addition to state debts, also fixes the debts of corporations and banks. And here the situation is already beginning to inspire fears. So far, according to the expert, the following picture is emerging: the total external debt of Russia is gradually growing, and the size of the reserve remains at the same level. So far, there are no special risks. However, if world prices for gas and oil fall sharply, this will cause an automatic fall in the ruble. In this case, the authorities are unlikely to avoid devaluation, and the nat. The currency may well drop to 40 rubles / dollar.