How the plane will look in 2050

The aviation industry expects a sevenfold increase in air traffic by 2050 - and a fourfold increase in greenhouse gas emissions, unless serious measures are taken. But how serious should these measures be and to what changes in the design of the aircraft they will lead? What will the planes look like in 35 years?

Battery Density

The most important step on the way to making the aviation industry more environmentally friendly is the complete electrification of all commercial aircraft. This means zero emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere, as well as the supply of energy from special stations that also supply energy to themselves. The main technological barrier that will need to be overcome is the battery density, an indicator that shows how much energy can be obtained from a certain battery weight. Tesla CEO said that as soon as batteries capable of producing 400 watts per kilogram, with an energy cell-to-total ratio of about 0.7-0.8, will appear, an electric transcontinental aircraft can become a reality. Given the fact that lithium-ion batteries were able to achieve a density of 113 watt-hours per kilogram in 1994, 202 watts-per-hour per kilogram in 2004 and currently have a density of about 300 watts-per-kilogram, it can be assumed that In the next decade they may well reach a density of 400 watts-per-hour per kilogram.

Price imbalance

Another aspect should be a serious drop in prices for solar panels, which already represent a rather cheap form of energy in many progressive countries of the world. The expected 70 percent drop in prices for lithium-ion batteries by 2025 and the rapid increase in prices for jet fuel based on kerosene will lead to a serious imbalance in the cost of servicing electronic and standard aircraft, which in turn will seriously favor the electrification of the aviation industry .

Biofuel in the waiting period

However, if we take into account the fact that the average lifespan of a passenger or cargo aircraft is 21 and 33 years, respectively, even if all new aircraft produced from today become electronic, a complete refusal of fuel planes would take two to three decades . Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the fact that biofuel offers a serious reduction in emissions of harmful substances (from 36 to as much as 85 percent, which depends to a large extent on what kind of land this fuel is grown on). And since the transition from one type of fuel to another is fairly simple, it is that close target that is worth pursuing before the complete abandonment of internal combustion engines in aircraft.

Problems

However, even with the fact that aircraft operating on a mixture of standard and biofuel, were certified in 2009, the aviation industry is in no hurry to change anything. The fact is that there are certain technological problems, consisting in the complexity of increasing the production of bio-fuels on an industrial scale. But the main obstacle still remains the cost - after all, the standard fuel is still the cheapest, and the price balance does not equalize for at least another ten years.

The process of introducing new technology

The introduction of any new aviation technology is a rather complex process, which involves conducting research, developing sketches, testing, and a complex integration process. And it usually takes at least a decade. So, given the fact that a complete abandonment of an internal combustion engine in the aviation industry can only happen by the middle of the current century, it seems reasonable from the environmental and financial point of view to strive for innovation in other areas: the design of the airframe, the study of available materials for the design and Air traffic control.

Embodiment of idea into life

As can be easily noticed, the world is experiencing constant serious changes in technology. That's why people need to give up everyday template thinking in order to fully understand what resources are now available to them, and also to use them to competently shape the future of mankind. In the question of the cost of computing power, we can safely say that computer technology is progressing one hour more than in the first ninety years of existence. Given this factor, we can assume that the equivalent of a computer that costs now a thousand dollars in 2023 may be more powerful than the human brain, and by the middle of the century it can surpass the power of all the human brains gathered together. And if we put together the increase in computing power and the reduction in the size of computers, we can assume that in the next decade there will be complex computers that will be able to fully control the flight of the aircraft in real time.