Rmb Company: Markets Wait Action From Central Banks

According to the RMB Company, the quotations of major currency pairs over the past day have changed little - the markets clearly continued to digest the results of the EU summit held on June 28-29 and the explosive growth of risky assets on Friday. At the same time, of course, many preferred to fix the profit received from Friday's growth. EUR / USD fell 0.2% to 1.2600, pound sterling, on the contrary, "weighed" by 0.3% against the backdrop of positive data on the PMI production index, whose value in June was 48.6 against expectations of 46, 5 and the previous value of 45.9.

European stock indexes ADX30, CAC40 and FTSE100 increased by 1.24%, 1.36% and 1.25%, while their American "counterparts" showed a much worse result - the S & P500 index grew by 0.25%, in While the Dow Jones declined by 0.07%. According to RMB Company, the reason for such a strong dynamics is that investors were more willing to buy European assets on expectations that on Thursday the ECB will reduce the refinancing rate to 0.75%. At the same time, yesterday the value of the ISM index in the US manufacturing sector in June was only 49.7 against the expected 52.0 (the previous value was 53.5), which limited the growth of risk-based assets, and, first of all, American stock market.

Published today, data on building permits in Australia in May multiply exceeded analysts' forecasts - an increase of 27.3% m / m against expectations of 5.0% m / m (in April, a decrease of 7.6% m / m according to updated data ). For 3 hours after the publication of data, the "Australian" added about 25 points, but after the publication of the decision on the rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has moved to a decline. The RBA left the main interest rate unchanged at 3.50%, as all 28 Bloomberg analysts had expected. In comments to its decision, the Bank noted that "the data signals a worsening of the situation in Europe and China," "the decline in commodity prices helps to reduce inflation," and "the outlook for the world economy is worse than a few months ago." Such comments confirm the idea that the RBA may cut its bid at a meeting in August, waiting for additional stimulus measures from the ECB and the People's Bank of China (ie, the RBA does not want to "run ahead of the locomotive").

The subject of the further policy of the main central banks at the moment is crucial for market participants. The focus is Thursday, July 5, when the decision on the rate will be taken by the ECB. Throughout the European crisis, the ECB has taken additional incentive measures (be it rate reduction or long-term refinancing operations (LTRO)) following specific measures of European policymakers to manage crisis processes (creation of aid funds, etc.). Experts are not waiting for an exception, and this time, predicting a decrease in the basic interest rate at a July 5 meeting. The unemployment report in the US on Friday in case of bad numbers is likely to also increase speculation about additional assistance from the Fed.

Today, from the important makrostatistiki worth noting the data on the PMI index of the construction sector in the UK, which can once again support the quotes of the British currency.