Consequences of global warming. Hypotheses, comments, forecasts of scientists

Recently, many scientists say that on Earth there is a global warming of the climate. This process is noticed by each of us. After all, in recent years, the weather has changed significantly: winters are tightening, spring comes late, and summer sometimes is very hot.

But still, despite the fact that the effects of global warming are fixed by many scientific observations, there are still endless discussions around this topic. Some scientists believe that due to climate change on Earth, the arrival of the "ice age" is expected. Others make disappointing forecasts, while others believe that the catastrophic consequences of global warming for our planet are highly controversial. Who of them is right? Let's try to understand this question.

The concept of global warming

What definition can this term be given? Global warming on Earth is a process that represents a gradual increase in the value of the average annual temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere. It occurs because of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, as well as due to changes in volcanic or solar activity.

The problem of global warming began to be of particular concern to the world community at the end of the 20th century. Moreover, many scientists associate the temperature rise with the development of industry that emits methane, carbon dioxide and many other gases that cause a greenhouse effect. What is this phenomenon?

The greenhouse effect is the increase in the values of the average annual temperature of the air masses due to the increase in the concentration of water vapor, methane, etc. in them. These gases are a kind of film that, like the glass of a greenhouse, easily passes sun rays through itself and delays heat. However, there is a lot of scientific evidence that the causes of global warming on the Earth lie not only in the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There is a set of hypotheses. However, none of them can be accepted with absolute certainty. Consider those statements of scientists who deserve the most attention.

Hypothesis number 1

Many scientists believe that the causes of global warming on our planet lie in increasing the activity of the Sun. On this star, meteorologists sometimes observe so-called sunspots, which are nothing but powerful magnetic fields. This phenomenon causes changes in climatic conditions.

For more than a century, meteorologists have been calculating sunspots that appear on the sun. On the basis of the data obtained, the Englishman E. Mondoro in 1983 made an interesting conclusion that during the 14-19 centuries, sometimes called the small glacial period, no such phenomenon was observed in the Celestial Light. And in 1991, scientists from the Danish University of Meteorology studied the "sunspots" recorded during the 20th century. The conclusion was made unambiguous. Scientists have confirmed the fact that there is a direct relationship between the temperature changes on our planet and the activity of the Sun.

Hypothesis number 2

Yugoslav astronomer Milankovic suggested that global warming is largely due to changes in the orbit along which the Earth rotates around the Sun. Affects climate change and the rotation angle of our planet.

New characteristics in the position and motion of the Earth cause changes in the radiation balance of our planet, and, consequently, in its climate.

Influence of the World Ocean

There is an opinion that the World Ocean is the culprit of global climate change on Earth. Its water element is a large inertial accumulator of solar energy. Scientists have established that intensive heat exchange occurs between the thickness of the World Ocean and the lower layers of the atmosphere. This leads to significant climatic changes.

In addition, there are about one hundred and forty trillion tons of dissolved carbon dioxide in the oceanic waters. Under certain natural conditions, this element enters the atmosphere, also influencing the climate, creating a greenhouse effect.

The action of volcanoes

According to scientists, volcanic activity is one of the causes of global warming. During the eruptions, an enormous amount of carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere. It is the reason for the increase in average annual temperatures.

This mysterious solar system

One of the reasons for the global warming of the Earth, according to scientists, is the unexplored interactions that exist between the Sun and the planets that make up its system. Changes in temperature on the Earth arise in connection with different distributions of gravitational fields and many types of energy.

Nothing can be changed

Among scientists, there is an opinion that global warming of the climate takes place on its own, without the influence of man and any external influences. Such a hypothesis also has the right to exist, since our planet is a large and very complex system that has a lot of various structural elements. Adherents of this opinion have even built various mathematical models, confirming the fact that natural fluctuations in the ground layer of air can be from 0 to 4 degrees.

In all we are to blame?

The most popular cause of global warming on our planet is the ever increasing human activity, which significantly changes the chemical composition of the atmosphere. As a result of the work of industrial enterprises, air is increasingly saturated with greenhouse gases.

Specific figures speak in favor of this hypothesis. The fact is that over the past 100 years the average air temperature in the lower layers of the atmosphere has increased by 0.8 degrees. For natural processes, this speed is too high, because earlier such changes have occurred for more than one millennium. In addition, in recent decades, the rate of increase in air temperature has increased even more.

The trick of the producers or the truth?

To date, the following question can not be resolved to the end: "Is global warming a myth or a reality?" There is an opinion that climate change is nothing more than a commercial project. The history of the consideration of this topic began in 1990. Before that, mankind was frightened by the horror story about the ozone holes that are formed due to the presence of freon in the atmosphere. The content of this gas in the air was negligible, but, nevertheless, this idea was used by American manufacturers of refrigerators. They did not use freon in the manufacture of their products and led a merciless war against their competitors. As a result, European companies began to replace cheap freon expensive analogue, increasing the cost of refrigerators.

Today's idea of global warming benefits many political forces. After all, concern for the environment can bring in their ranks a lot of supporters, which will allow them to receive the cherished power.

Scenarios of the development of events

Forecasts of scientists about what the consequences for our planet will have climate change are ambiguous. Because of the complexity of processes occurring on Earth, the situation can develop according to different scenarios.

So, there is an opinion that global climate change will occur over the centuries and even millennia. This is due to the complexity of the relationship between the world's oceans and the atmosphere. These powerful energy batteries can not be reconstructed in the shortest possible time.

But there is another scenario for the development of events, according to which global warming will occur relatively quickly on our planet. The temperature of air already by the end of the 21st century will increase in comparison with 1990 on the index from 1,1 to 6,4 degrees. In this case, intensive melting of the ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will begin. As a result, the waters of the World Ocean will increase their level. This process is observed today. For example, from 1995 to 2005. The thickness of the waters of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm. If this process does not reduce its speed, flooding with global warming will become inevitable for many coastal lands. Especially it will affect the multi-populated areas located in Asia.

The processes of climate change in the western United States and in Northern Europe will cause an increase in the frequency of storms and precipitation. On these lands, twice as often as in the 20th century, hurricanes will rage. What will the results of global warming be in this scenario for Europe? In its central areas, the climate will change with warmer winters and rainy summers. In Eastern and Southern Europe (including the Mediterranean), there will be heat and drought.

There are also forecasts of scientists that the global change in climatic conditions in some parts of our planet will lead to short-term cooling. This will contribute to the slowing of warm currents, caused by the melting of glacial caps. And it is possible and complete stop of these huge vectors of solar energy, which will cause the next glacial period.

The most unpleasant scenario for the development of events may be a greenhouse disaster. It will be caused by the transition into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide contained in the thickness of the waters of the World Ocean. In addition, as a result of the melting of glaciers from the permafrost, methane will be released. In this case, a monstrous film will form in the lower layers of the Earth's atmosphere, and the growth of temperatures will take catastrophic scales.

The effects of global climate change

Scientists believe that rejecting the cardinal measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will lead to an increase in the average annual temperature by 1.4-5.8 degrees by the year 2100. The consequences of global warming will affect the increase in periods of hot weather, which will become more extreme in their temperature regime and longer. And the development of the situation will be mixed in different regions of our planet.

What are the predicted consequences of global warming for the animal world? Change their habitat will be forced by penguins, seals and polar bears, accustomed to living in polar ice. In this case, many species of plants and animals will simply disappear if they can not adapt to new habitat conditions.

Also global warming will cause climate change on a global scale. According to the scientists, this will cause a rise in the number of floods that have resulted from hurricanes. In addition, summer precipitation will decrease by 15-20%, which will cause desertification of many agricultural areas. And because of the rising temperature and water level of the World Ocean, the boundaries of the natural zones will begin to shift to the north.

What are the consequences of global warming for humans? In the short term, climate change threatens people with problems with drinking water, with cultivation of agricultural land. They will lead to an increase in the number of infectious diseases. And the most serious blow will be inflicted on the poorest countries, which, in principle, do not bear any responsibility for the forthcoming climate change.

According to the scientists, about six hundred million people will be put on the brink of starvation. By 2080, residents of China and Asia can experience an ecological crisis caused by a change in the nature of precipitation and the melting of glaciers. The same process will lead to the flooding of many small islands and coastal areas. In an area prone to floods, there will be about one hundred million people, many of whom will be forced to migrate. Scientists predict the disappearance of even some states (for example, the Netherlands and Denmark). It is likely that part of Germany will also be under water.

As for the long-term prospect of global warming, it can become the next stage in the evolution of man. Our distant ancestors faced similar problems in those periods when, after the ice age, the air temperature increased by ten degrees. Such changes in living conditions led to the creation of today's civilization.

The consequences of climate change for Russia

Some of our fellow citizens believe that the problem of global warming will affect only the inhabitants of other countries. After all, Russia is a country with a cold climate, and an increase in air temperature will only benefit her. The cost of heating the housing and production facilities will decrease. Their benefits are expected and agriculture.

What, according to the forecasts of scientists, global warming and its consequences for Russia? Due to the length of the territory and the wide variety of natural and climatic zones available on it, the results of changes in weather conditions will manifest themselves in different ways. In some regions, they will be positive, and in others - negative.

For example, an average of 3-4 days for the country should reduce the time of the heating season. And this will provide tangible savings in energy resources. But at the same time, another effect will have global warming and its consequences. For Russia, this threatens to increase the number of days with a high and even a critical temperature level. In connection with this, the costs for air conditioning of industrial enterprises and buildings will increase. In addition, the growth of such heat waves will be an unfavorable factor, worsening the health of people, especially those who live in large cities.

Global warming is becoming a threat and already creates problems with the melting of permafrost. Soil subsidence in such zones is dangerous for transport and engineering structures, as well as for buildings. In addition, with the melting of permafrost, a change in the terrain will take place with the formation of thermokarst lakes on it.

Conclusion

Until now, there is no single answer to the following question: "What is global warming - a myth or a reality?". However, this problem is quite tangible and deserves close attention. According to the comments of scientists, especially it made itself felt in 1996-1997, when many weather surprises were presented to mankind in the form of about 600 different floods and hurricanes, snowfalls and showers, droughts and earthquakes. In these years, the elements caused enormous material damage amounting to sixty billion dollars and claimed eleven thousand human lives.

The solution to the problem of global warming must be at the international level, with the participation of the world community and with the assistance of the government of each state. To preserve the planet's health, mankind needs to adopt a program of further actions, including monitoring and reporting at each of its stages of implementation.