By the end of the century, there may be 2 billion climate refugees

Recently, the world began to actively discuss the threat of climate change, because at some point it ceased to be an abstract scientific concept. Many people had to face forest fires in which they lost their homes, floods in coastal regions that have become uninhabitable, and strong storms that even major metropolitan centers do not spare.

Forecasts

Nowadays, there are also climate refugees - people who were forced to leave their homes due to sea level rise, strong cyclones, extreme heat waves, shortage of water and food, as well as from the conflict zone caused by the climate. Today, the number of climate refugees is thousands, but, according to a new study, by the end of the century they will be joined by 2 billion people.

By that time, the planet will have about 11 billion people, which means that more than one-fifth of the entire population will have to flee from the nightmares that climate change will bring with it.

Climatic Refugees Today

Today, climate refugees mostly come from sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and the small Pacific islands, which are submerged in waves.

For half a century, millions of people will have to leave the shrinking coasts of many countries, including the most densely populated ones, such as Indonesia, Japan, India, China and, of course, America. No doubt, people will flee from Miami to the San Francisco Bay area, when the tides will be getting closer to their homes.

What problems will massive migration bring?

By 2100, the mass migration of people around the planet, from shores to more hilly cities and villages, will become commonplace. This will create a serious strain on the economy of megacities, where the largest influxes of people will be observed, while the number of abandoned communities will quickly decline.

However, the problem of climate refugees is not just a matter of moving people to new cities. "Even in the absence of depletion of land resources, melting of permafrost, lack of space in cities, roads and burial places, there are geopolitical barriers to people entering other areas," the team from Cornell University said in a study.

Among other things, this will enable a small handful of landowners to decide who will be able to move across their territory. But the problem, in fact, will become much more serious, since the ongoing wars and regional conflicts are too low a barrier for people to enter new territories.

Prevention of scientists

The figure of 2 billion is the worst scenario. He suggests that mitigation measures, such as the Paris Agreement, fail, and fossil fuels have not been replaced by low-carbon energy sources such as wind, solar and nuclear.

Although the authors of the study are not completely pessimistic about the future, they suggest that it is necessary to take active measures, since at this stage the number of refugees from coastal regions will only increase.

"Whatever the correct assessments, the reasonable protection of the planet will require unprecedented cross-border efforts and cooperation," scientists predict.