The Paris Agreement: the temperature on the planet should not rise by more than 2 degrees

In December of last year, we all could observe a rare scene of international unity. The genuine and innovative Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which was signed by representatives of 195 countries, set a goal to limit global warming. According to this document, by 2100 the global temperature can rise no more than 2 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 Fahrenheit). Although even the very fact of this arrangement is a significant achievement for people, some skeptics have argued that this is a fairly arbitrary temperature limit. In the end, how realistic is that the world will be able to adhere to this plan?

What does the new study say?

The new study assessed the commitments made by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, and its results are really not very good. The most likely scenario is one in which the global temperature actually rises by 2.6-3.1 degrees by 2100. Worse still, the amount of carbon needed to maintain a temperature change of only 2 degrees will reach its limit by 2030.

The Paris agreement has become a flexible basis for long-term transformation to a low-carbon society. This was stated by Jerry Rogel, a researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the lead author of the study. The analysis of scientists shows that these measures should be strengthened in order to ensure a good chance of keeping global warming below the 2 degree mark.

Scenarios of the development of events

The team of researchers worked out different scenarios of carbon emissions based on existing computer models. The most famous of them assumes that the Paris agreement will be implemented and will continue after 2030, when the pledge period will come to an end. It is obvious that humanity should make larger scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions than those specified in the agreement.

Scientists suggest that after 2030 much more stringent measures are needed. One of them is a reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions by about 3-4% on an annualized basis. This, of course, is quite possible. For example, China has already begun a large-scale work on the use of wind energy. Other countries can use nuclear and renewable energy to significantly reduce carbon emissions.

Other problems

In any case, this study really highlights another problem related to the Paris Agreement. Many parts of the world have already suffered irreparable damage, and this will not change, despite whether we can keep warming within two degrees, or not.

A recent study has shown that many parts of the Middle East and North Africa will become uninhabitable by the end of the century due to high temperatures. This situation will not change, no matter what humanity will try to do. Another example is Arctic amplification. This is a unique climatological phenomenon in the far north, which leads to the melting of ice caps, glaciers and sea ice with unprecedented speed. Agriculture can not quickly adapt to the environment, which heats up with such speed.

All these problems are relevant right now, therefore the Paris agreement can not stop or slow them down. This, unfortunately, means that all these changes will continue, even if the agreement reaches its goal.

The future of the world

If countries continue to burn fossil fuels, as it has been so far, the future of the world is rather apocalyptic. The Arctic will warm up to about 20 degrees Celsius, while the rest of the world will be half its current value. This will lead to a catastrophically rapid rise in sea level, as a result of which many coastal cities will be flooded. Land can lose 17% of its total wealth. Many people will suffer, but Africa is likely to become the site for the unfolding of the worst scenario. The world can be preserved, but for some of its parts it's too late.